Google Search Trends Update

As part of our ongoing strategy to optimize digital marketing efforts, CAMP Digital regularly conducts a thorough examination of past performance and forward-looking trend predictions in the Google search trends update. This semiannual assessment is instrumental in assessing historical outcomes, pinpointing emerging trends, and making well-informed decisions to refine future campaigns.

Through meticulous analysis of pivotal metrics such as Costs Per Conversions and Search Trends, we gain valuable insights into the effectiveness of our strategies and unearth potential opportunities for improvement. In this report, we present the findings from our latest review, covering various advertising categories including Local Service Ads, Google Paid Search, and specific industries like Plumbing & Drains, HVAC, Electrical, Water Heaters, Garage Doors, and Roofing. It’s noteworthy that all categories are poised to witness a decline in search volume around the upcoming fall election, a trend already manifesting notably by October.

Local Service Ads:

We evaluated over $25,000,000 in LSA Spend, focusing on the last six months (November 1, 2023 – April 30, 2024).

• Year over year (11/1/2023 – 4/30/2024 vs 11/1/2022 – 4/30/2023): There was a 31.6% increase in Cost Per Charged Lead.
• Last six months vs the previous six months (11/1/2023 – 4/30/2024 vs 5/1/2023 – 10/31/2023): An 8.2% increase in Cost Per Charged Lead was observed. 

Please note, we had anticipated a 10-15% increase for the last six months compared to the previous six months, so we are pleased to see a smaller increase. However, it’s worth mentioning that Message and Text Leads were aggressively pushed out during the last six months, and those leads should be charged at an average lower rate.

Google Paid Search

Plumbing & Drains:

• Anticipated Updates: Last fall, we were informed to expect a projected increase in search traffic of 11%, with the Cost Per Conversion expected to steadily rise by 9-13%.
• Actual: We have already witnessed a 13.33% increase in searches, accompanied by a 12.27% increase in Cost Per Conversion.
• Looking Forward: Google’s data suggests an additional 3.51% increase in search and a 3.05% additional increase in Cost Per Conversion. 
• Note of Interest: Plumbing also experienced a significant increase in ad depth of 17.8%!

HVAC:

• Anticipated Updates: Overall HVAC search was predicted to decrease by over 6% in the next 12 months (12 months starting November 2024). However, HVAC service and repair search terms are expected to see increases of 9-14% during this period. The prediction also included a Cost Per Conversion increase on HVAC install and replace terms of around 15-20%, while decreasing slightly by 1-4% on HVAC service terms.
• Actual: HVAC Service and repair terms did see an increase of around 11.97% in search trends. The category as a whole did increase driven by those Service and Repair terms while install terms had a small decrease in volume. Cost Per Conversions experienced an overall increase of 6.04%.
• Looking Forward: Google projects a 6.3% increase overall for HVAC search trends, with Service and Repair increasing by almost 21% at its peak. Cost Per Conversion are predicted to increase another 5 – 14%
• Note of Interest: HVAC and Cooling/AC terms are expected to increase, albeit later than in previous years. Google anticipates the largest spike in searches occurring in July, indicating a shorter season (see screenshot below).

Electrical:

• Anticipated Updates: For Electrical, search was predicted to increase by 10%, with a slowdown at the end of 2023 and a search increase in Q1 2024. Cost Per Conversion was anticipated to increase significantly as well.
• Actual: Google’s prediction was spot on. We experienced an increase in search traffic as well as a significant increase in Cost Per Conversion, almost reaching 10%.
• Looking Forward: This trend is expected to continue, with an additional 7% increase in Search Volume and an anticipated increase of 7.6% in Cost Per Conversion.
• Note of Interest: As expected for all categories, a slowdown is projected at the end of the year, coinciding with the election.

Water Heaters:

• Anticipated Updates: For Water Heaters, search was expected to increase slowly but steadily by about 5%, with costs increasing by 7-11%.
• Actual: Water Heater searches decreased slightly overall, while costs increased at the upper end of the anticipated range, reaching 10.4%.
• Looking Forward: Search for Water Heaters is predicted to drop by about 7%, with Cost Per Conversion holding close to steady.
• Note of Interest: There appears to be an opportunity in broad match search within Water Heaters, with a slight increase in Broad Match terms (1.8%) and a slight reduction in cost (0.5%).

Garage Doors:

• Anticipated Updates: Garage Doors were projected to increase by 4% at the end of 2023, with a slight slowdown to a 2% increase in 2024. The projected search cost, however, was anticipated to be around 15%.
• Actual: Garage Doors experienced a 3.91% increase in search traffic, while the Cost Per Conversion was lower than projected at only a 4% increase.
• Looking Forward: Search is predicted to remain relatively steady, with a slight increase, and Cost Per Conversions should also remain steady, ranging from a 0.5% to 3% increase over the year.

Roofing:

• Anticipated Updates: Google projected an increase in both search trends and Cost Per Conversion.
• Actual: We saw a significant increase in search traffic of 20% and an increase of just over 14% in Cost Per Conversion.
• Looking Forward: Google is projecting a slowdown in roofing of almost 6%, while the Cost Per Conversion continues to increase.
• Note of Interest: We observed the largest increase in Cost Per Leads in LSA in Roofing overall.

In conclusion, the data analysis provided valuable insights into the performance and trends across different advertising categories. By closely examining the changes in Costs Per Conversions and Search Trends, we can adapt our strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate potential challenges. Moving forward, we will continue to leverage this information to refine our digital marketing efforts, ensuring that we remain agile and responsive to the evolving landscape of online advertising. With a proactive approach guided by data-driven insights, we are well-positioned to drive continued success for our clients in the dynamic digital marketplace.

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