As we move into the second half of 2025, Google’s category-level performance data is offering important insights – and in some cases, surprising shifts – for the home services industry.
At CAMP Digital, our direct partnership with Google gives us exclusive access to this data across key verticals. Below, we break down how Google’s predictions have held up so far, what’s actually happened in H1, and what to expect for the remainder of the year. Whether you’re in HVAC, plumbing, roofing, or another trade, use these insights to sharpen your approach, align your spend, and plan for the critical Q3–Q4 stretch.
Key 2025 Mid-Year Trends by Service Category
Electrical:
2025 Google Predictions:
- Cost: 8–12% increase
- Volume: Slight overall increase, with a mid-year dip
- CTR: No major change projected beyond a small decrease.
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Increased 10% – on the high end of Google’s prediction
- Volume: Initial dip, now relatively steady with slight growth
- Clicks: CTR unexpectedly dropped late Q1 into Q2 and remained flat
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Costs: Small Q3 dip expected, followed by a climb toward 15% increase YoY
- CTR: Modest increases expected
- Volume: Now predicted to slightly decrease- an update from earlier guidance
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Generators:
2025 Google Predictions:
- This is a newly tracked category for CAMP, so no previous data was collected.
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Volume: Volatile with 30% drop in Feb, rebound from March-May, ending flat compared to January
- Cost: Steady and significant rise of nearly 27%
- CTR: Remained stable
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Volume: Continued volatility expected, but overall increase predicted
- Ad Opportunities: New metric shows growing potential for visibility
- Costs: Another 15% increase expected, making this one of the highest increases we’ve seen
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Plumbing:
2025 Google Predictions:
- Search volume is expected to stabilize with an 8%-10% overall increase, particularly in the second half of 2025, showing a 20% increase year-over-year (driven by the decline in the tail end of 2024).
- Click-through rates (CTR) are projected to rise slightly (4%-8%).
- Costs are expected to increase by approximately 10%.
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Up nearly 10%
- CTR: Declined in H1
- Volume: Decreased slightly overall, with some recovery in March before flattening in Q2
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Costs: Predicted to rise another 3%
- Volume: Anticipated 5-9% decline
- CTR: Expected to rise from H1 but remain down YoY
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Drains:
2025 Google Predictions:
- Cost: Nearly 20% increase expected, with largest jump post-Q1
- Volume: Anticipated decline of 17% in summer, stabilizing in Q4
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Increased 15% for general terms; increased 9% for brand-specific terms like “Rooter” (which start at higher baselines)
- Volume: Mixed – general terms held steady; “Rooter” terms increased
- Clicks: Dropped in Q1 but improved toward the end of H1
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Costs: Still expected to rise, peaking in October before a slight decline
- Volume: Q3 decline of 15% predicted, recovery in Q4 to 2024 levels
- CTR: Growth expected vs. H1, but still below 2024
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Water Heaters:
2025 Google Predictions:
- Cost: CPC is expected to rise by approximately 15%.
- Volume: Search volume will see a modest 3% increase, but steady declines throughout the year – with a sharp year-over-year drop in June, July, and August.
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Far exceeded projections – general terms up nearly 22%
- Volume: Down 14% in Q1, slight Q2 recovery, ending at overall decrease of 10%
- CTR: Stayed steady, slight Q1 dip
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Costs: Predicted 8-10% increase over H1
- Volume: Expected to rise in late Q3 but remain below January and 2024 levels
- CTR: September increase forecasted; expected to drop again in Q4
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HVAC:
2025 Google Predictions:
- Volume: Install and Replace terms will continue to remain stagnant with almost no growth and a suggested decline the second half of the year after the hot summer months of around 8% – 12%.The summer AC search spike is expected to occur later – spiking in July rather than June.
- Cost: Will closely match 2024 levels in the first half, but a 5% increase is expected in the second half. This is largely driven by Maintenance and Repair
- High-intent terms like “AC repair” could see cost spikes of up to 35%.
- CTR: Projected to decline for the second consecutive year.
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Up 10% across the board
- Volume: General HVAC terms nearly flat YoY; repair terms slightly up; install terms down
- CTR: Seasonal lift for AC terms, drop for furnace terms
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Cost: Still climbing, but more slowly than in H1
- Volume: General and install terms expected to decline; repair/maintenance terms may increase 8-12%
- CTR: Forecasted increase for repair terms, steep drop for install terms compared to 2024
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Roofing:
2025 Google Predictions:
- Cost: 15% increase expected (mostly in H1)
- Volume & CTR: Both projected to decline, indicating increased competition
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Increased by 11%, below the 15% forecast
- Volume: Jumped in February–March, then flattened
- Clicks: Held steady, beating projected declines
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Volume: Still expected to decline, especially in Q4 (mirroring 2024)
- Clicks: Predicted to decline through end of the year, with major year-over-year drops in August and November
- Costs: Expected to rise another 9% over current levels
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Restoration:
2025 Google Predictions:
- This is a newly tracked category for CAMP, so no previous data was collected.
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Costs did increase overall, with a slight dip at the end of Q1 into Q2.
- Volume: Google data shows a healthy increase in search volume in Q1 of this year with a slight reduction in search between May and June.
- CTR: Did show a slight decrease through the year so far.
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Cost: Do show a slight increase in the second half of the year, although not consistent.
- Volume: Interest is predicted to climb, but volatile. Overall this category does show growth in search volume between 7 – 11%
- CTR: Forecast shows slight growth in Q3 and a slight decline into Q4.
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Mold Services:
2025 Google Predictions:
- This is a newly tracked category for CAMP, so no previous data was collected.
2025 H1 Google Actuals:
- Cost: Saw a 9% increase the 1st half of 2025.
- Volume: This category had a significant increase in search volume so far in 2025! One of the largest growth categories.
- CTR: Q1 saw a decline in CTR, this was almost recovered in Q2 but overall the category CTR was lower January to June.
2025 H2 Google Outlook:
- Cost: Another 9% increase is projected in this category this year.
- Volume: Continues to increase with a slowdown in Q4.
- CTR: Looks to remain steady.
Bonus Insight: New Google Metric – Ad Opportunities
Google has introduced a new data point called Ad Opportunities, which reflects all potential commercial engagement points available across Google’s ecosystem – even if an ad wasn’t ultimately shown.
This new metric is more expansive than traditional volume tracking. It shows where your business could appear within the customer journey – from discovery to decision – across Google Search and other owned properties.
Why it matters:
Ad Opportunities is now replacing some of the legacy metrics we’ve been tracking (like search volume) and will become a core measurement in the quarters ahead. It’s a more comprehensive look at how much opportunity actually exists – not just what’s being captured.
We’ve included an example below from recent AC-related queries to illustrate how this metric performs in practice.
What’s next:
We’re currently working closely with our Google partners to unlock additional layers of insight from this metric, including how it can inform campaign strategy, category targeting, and budget planning.
As this shift unfolds, you can count on CAMP Digital to stay ahead of the data curve – so you can stay ahead of the competition. Follow us on our socials and subscribe to our Digital Compass Newsletter to stay in-the-know. LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram
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At CAMP Digital, we don’t just pull the data – we turn it into strategy. Our proprietary access to Google’s forecasting tools, paired with AI-driven campaign optimization, helps our clients stay one step ahead of the competition.
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