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Navigating the Digital Marketing Landscape: Latest Google Trend Predictions for Home Services

As a top digital marketing agency for home service companies, we aim to stay on the cutting edge of the latest Google search and cost trends. Understanding both historical and predicted patterns allows us to optimize budgets and performance for clients across various skilled trades. 

Every six months, our team requests customized data from Google to analyze past performance and forecast future trends. We recently completed our latest analysis, which revealed some key insights:

Local Services Ads (LSA) costs per lead increased over 37% last year, much higher than our estimated 20%. However, looking ahead we expect more modest increases of 10-15% in 2024 as growth slows.

– Paid search costs per conversion rose nearly 20% across core trades like plumbing, HVAC, electrical and more. Some categories saw spikes over 25% mid-year before settling around 20% growth year-over-year.

– HVAC and electrical paid search saw the steepest cost per conversion increases in 2022.

Armed with this historical data, we developed projections for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. Here are some highlights:

Plumbing and Drains:

  • Plumbing search is projected to increase 11% over the next 12 months, with the largest spike occurring in Q4 2024 after a modest slowdown in early Q1 2024. 
  • Plumbing cost per conversion is expected to increase steadily by 9-13%.


  • Overall HVAC search is predicted to decrease by over 6% in the next 12 months. However, HVAC service and repair search terms are expected to see increases of 9-14% during this period.
  • HVAC cost per conversion on install and replace terms is projected to increase 15-20%, while decreasing slightly by 1-4% on service terms.


  • Electrical search is projected to increase 10% over the next 12 months, with a slow start over the next quarter before accelerating again in Q1 2024.
  • Electrical cost per conversion is expected to spike significantly in Q4 2023 by over 12%, followed by more modest increases of 4-5% into 2024.

Water Heaters:

  • Water Heater search is projected to increase steadily but slowly by 5% over the next 12 months, with a small dip mid-2024. 
  • Water Heater cost per conversion is predicted to increase by 7-11%.

Garage Doors

  • Garage Door search is projected to increase 4% for the remainder of 2023 but only 2% into 2024, with a decrease expected in Q1 2024 before rebounding again.
  • Garage Door cost per conversion is anticipated to increase significantly by 15-20% over the next 12 months.

As the digital marketing landscape continues to evolve, our team will keep a close eye on the data to help clients adapt. Historical trends and future predictions allow us to optimize budgets, allocate resources, and drive performance no matter what changes come.

Want insights tailored to your specific home service niche? Let’s connect to navigate the path ahead. With the right data guiding our strategy, we can maximize your success online this year and beyond.